AGP Executive Report

Farm Risks: Agricultural experts urged Belize’s farmers to prepare for a strengthening El Niño, with a 97% chance it will persist through April 2027 and an 81% chance it will become very strong from November to January. Hotter, drier conditions threaten crops, livestock and water supplies. Cacao Exports: Maya Mountain Cacao’s co-operative will take over international exports in 2027, giving farmers greater control of the business. Sugar Markets: Belize is selling more sugar in CARICOM, and a new refinery is nearing completion. The government says refined exports could improve returns, as cane farmers received an estimated $10 per ton in final payments this season. Transport Services: The National Bus Company is preparing WhatsApp ticket booking, with QR-code boarding and trip updates, as it moves to expand. Southern Air Links: Tropic Air plans to end Punta Gorda flights, citing losses and low demand; the government is in talks with Maya Air to maintain service. Business Outlook: The World Bank forecasts Belize growth of 2.4% in 2026, slowing to 2.2% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. A U.S. investment report notes business-registration reforms but flags approval delays, high utility and transport costs, and labour shortages.

Agriculture: A strengthening El Niño could bring hotter, drier conditions through the coming months, raising risks for crops, livestock and water supplies. Farmers also face limited access to affordable finance. Transport: The National Bus Company is preparing WhatsApp ticket purchases, schedule checks and delay alerts, with QR codes for boarding. Meanwhile, the government is discussing support with Maya Air to preserve Punta Gorda flights after Tropic Air plans to leave the route. Cacao: Maya Mountain Cacao’s co-operative will take charge of international exports in 2027, putting farmers at the center of the business. Sugar: Belize is selling more sugar in CARICOM and plans to refine it locally for better prices, though cane farmers received an estimated $10 per ton in final payments. Economic Outlook: The World Bank forecasts 2.4% growth in 2026, slowing to 2.0% by 2028. A U.S. investment report notes reforms to ease business processes but flags approval delays, high power and transport costs, and land-title concerns.

Public Transport & Digital Services: The National Bus Company is moving toward online ticket purchases via WhatsApp, with QR codes for conductors and real-time schedule and delay notifications. Security & Government Reshuffle: A major Cabinet adjustment renames Home Affairs as the Ministry of National Security, with Michel Chebat overseeing Police and the Defence Force while keeping Energy and Ports; other changes include Ramon Cervantes to Public Utilities/Logistics/Solid Waste and Osmond Martinez to Economic Transformation. Aviation & Regional Connectivity: Government scrambles to protect Punta Gorda flights as Tropic Air prepares to end service, with talks underway about alternatives like Maya Air and possible support to avoid a southern tourism and business hit. Agriculture & Exports: Maya Mountain Cacao’s co-op is set to take over international export management in 2027, while the PM says Belize is selling more sugar into CARICOM and pushing refined sugar plans as cane farmers face low final payments amid pests and climate pressures. Business Climate: A new U.S. State Department investment statement highlights Belize’s growth and reforms like the Online Business Registry, but flags investor concerns over approvals, land titles, public contract transparency, and high electricity/transport costs. Fisheries & Trade: Eastern Caribbean fishers visited Belize to explore lobster industry operations and fisheries management, aiming to expand seafood trade. Energy Costs & Households: BEL promotes smart AMI meters so customers can track appliance-level usage and better manage bills.

World Bank Outlook: Belize’s economy is projected to grow 2.4% in 2026, easing to 2.2% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, with sticky inflation, tight fiscal space, and high borrowing costs weighing on private demand. Sugar & CARICOM: Prime Minister Briceño says Belize is exporting more sugar into CARICOM and is pushing refined sugar sales as cane farmers report about $10 per ton final payment amid climate and pest pressures. MV Barima COI: The MV Barima Commission of Inquiry will hold community meetings with survivors and relatives starting next Wednesday, with formal testimony beginning at the first sitting. Business Climate: A new U.S. investment climate statement highlights progress like the Online Business Registry and updated insolvency laws, but flags investor concerns over approvals, land titles, public contract transparency, and high electricity and transport costs. BTL Governance: The PM rejects NTUCB’s push for a direct board seat at BTL, saying current directors are performing well. Transport & Jobs: The House passed legislation enabling the National Bus Company’s asset transfers and concession packages, while the Transport Minister defends the process against bus operators’ complaints. Immigration for Labour & Investment: Government proposes an investor residence permit and seasonal worker pathways for agriculture, construction, and hospitality to address labour shortages. Agriculture Skills: FAO-backed training helped 60+ coconut farmers spot and control pests and diseases, with more districts scheduled. Manatees: Marie Sharp’s and Clearwater Marine Institute partner on a limited-edition hot sauce that funds manatee conservation. Regional Trade Link: Eastern Caribbean fishers visited Belize to learn about lobster industry management and expand seafood trade. Energy Costs Clarity: BEL’s smart meters are being promoted as a way for customers to track appliance-level usage and manage bills.

Public Transport & Jobs: The House passed key legislation to transfer assets and set concession packages for the National Bus Company, as Transport Minister Dr. Louis Zabaneh argues the old bus market was a “race to the bottom” and says the NBC is now ready to expand. Sugar Industry: Prime Minister John Briceño says cane farmers’ final payment has been about $10 per ton, blaming climate shocks and pests, while pointing to CARICOM market growth and a near-finished Santander refinery that could let Belize sell refined sugar for better returns. Energy & Cost of Living: BEL is showing customers how Smart AMI meters can reveal which appliances drive higher bills in real time, aiming to improve transparency and help households manage usage. Infrastructure Safety Lessons: As Belize City prepares for Swing Bridge replacement, a look back at the 1962 pontoon bridge disaster highlights why temporary crossings must be handled with extra care. Labor & Immigration: Government proposes an investor residence path and seasonal worker permits for agriculture/agribusiness, construction and hospitality, with the Labour Commissioner added to the visa vetting committee. Agriculture & Food Security: FAO-backed training has reached 60+ coconut farmers in Belize and Orange Walk to spot and control pests and diseases, with more districts next. Regional Trade & Tourism: Eastern Caribbean fishers visited Belize to study lobster and fisheries management, while Toledo stakeholders are pushing back against Tropic Air’s planned Punta Gorda exit on Nov. 1. Manatees & Local Industry: Marie Sharp’s and Clearwater Marine Institute teamed up on a limited-edition hot sauce to fund manatee conservation. Governance & State Assets: The PM rejected NTUCB’s demand for a direct seat on BTL’s board, saying the current directors are performing well and Cabinet sees no need for changes.

Belize Economy Watch: Belize grew 1.4% in Q2 2026, but the primary sector shrank 6.1% as bananas, citrus and livestock production fell, while sugarcane and marine exports helped cushion the blow. Cost of Living Signals: SIB reports inflation pressures tied to fuel and transport, and consumer confidence dropped sharply in Orange Walk, especially on durable goods and future expectations. Energy & Households: BEL is showing customers how Smart AMI meters can reveal which appliances drive higher bills in real time. Agriculture & Resilience: More than 60 coconut farmers in Belize and Orange Walk were trained to spot and manage pests and diseases, with further district workshops planned. Regional Trade & Logistics: Agriculture Minister Rodwell Ferguson pushed for stronger Caribbean shipping links and border processes to move food between markets. Policy for Investment & Labour: Government proposed immigration changes to allow investor residency and seasonal work permits for agriculture/agribusiness, construction and hospitality. Transport Shock in Toledo: Tropic Air plans to end Punta Gorda service on Nov 1, prompting emergency talks on whether government support or alternatives can keep the district connected. Taiwan-Belize Business Links: Taiwan says it will help Belize introduce electric buses and expand into the regional electric bus supply chain, alongside broader trade cooperation.

CARICOM Free Movement: A UWI lecture warned that small island states struggle to fully implement CARICOM freedom of movement due to “islandness” politics, limited administrative capacity, and demographic fears. Electricity Costs: BEL says smart AMI meters let households track appliance-by-appliance usage in near real time to spot what’s driving up bills. Immigration & Labour: The government proposed Immigration and Nationality amendments to create investor residency and seasonal work permits for labour-short sectors like agriculture/agribusiness, construction, and hospitality. Transport & Buses: The Transport Minister defended support for the National Bus Company, saying operators were invited to join but chose not to. Toledo Air Link: Stakeholders in Punta Gorda are scrambling after Tropic Air’s planned November 1 exit, weighing options including possible government support. Agriculture & Food Security: Coconut farmers in Belize and Orange Walk received FAO-backed training to detect and stop pests and diseases; meanwhile, Belize’s economy showed primary-sector contraction in Q2 while services drove growth. Regional Trade & Industry: Eastern Caribbean fishers toured Belize’s lobster industry to expand seafood trade, and Belize’s trade picture showed a goods deficit offset by a strong services surplus tied to tourism. Clean Energy Support: CDB launched a US$500,000 facility to back women-led clean energy businesses across the Caribbean, including Belize.

Taiwan–Belize–US trade push: Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung wrapped up a Belize visit and is now in Arizona to open Taiwan’s Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Phoenix, with plans to deepen a “China-free” supply chain and boost business links; the trip also includes a stop at TSMC’s Arizona plant. Electric buses for Belize: Taiwan says it will help Belize introduce electric buses and join a regional electric bus supply chain, citing rising trade since the 2022 Taiwan–Belize Economic Cooperation Agreement. Immigration overhaul: Belize proposed investor residency and seasonal worker programmes, including temporary employment visas for agriculture/agribusiness, construction and hospitality, plus changes to visa vetting to better connect work permits. Coconut pest training: Over 60 coconut farmers in Belize and Orange Walk were trained to spot and control pests and diseases, with more districts scheduled. Toledo air access at risk: Tropic Air’s planned Punta Gorda withdrawal on Nov. 1 sparked emergency talks on government support and alternatives. Cost-of-living signals: SIB reported August inflation at 4.4%, with transport costs up sharply and tomatoes, okra and onions down year-on-year. Primary sector softens: Belize’s primary sector contracted 6.1% in Q2, with declines in banana, citrus and livestock production, partly offset by stronger sugarcane and marine exports. Women-led clean energy funding: CDB launched a US$500,000 initiative to support women-led businesses developing clean energy solutions across the region, including Belize.

Belize–Taiwan business push: Taiwan’s FM Lin Chia-lung wrapped a Belize trip that included plans to help introduce electric buses and boost trade (including a big jump in Belize shrimp imports), then headed to Arizona to meet U.S. officials and visit TSMC’s semiconductor operations. Transport & tourism shock: Tropic Air says its Punta Gorda service is ending Nov 1, and Toledo stakeholders are scrambling for options as the route underpins tourism, cargo, and access to services. Immigration for investors & workers: The government proposed Immigration and Nationality amendments to create an investor residency path and seasonal worker permits for agriculture/agribusiness, construction, and hospitality. Agriculture resilience: Over 60 coconut farmers in Belize and Orange Walk were trained to spot and manage pests and diseases under an FAO “One Country One Priority Product” push. Economy & prices: Belize grew 1.4% in Q2 on services, while primary output fell; consumer prices rose 4.4% in August as fuel and transport costs climbed. Food trade reality check: Belize’s goods trade deficit widened, but services (especially tourism) help offset the merchandise gap.

Aviation & Tourism: Tropic Air says it will end its Punta Gorda service on Nov 1, citing sustained losses—prompting emergency talks in Toledo on how to keep the district connected, with the Opposition pressing for a government plan and possible subsidies. Economy & Prices: Belize’s economy grew 1.4% in Q2 2026, but the primary sector shrank 6.1% as banana, citrus and livestock output fell; inflation hit 4.4% in August as fuel and transport costs rose, while tomatoes, okra and onions were cheaper. Agriculture & Food Systems: Agriculture Minister Floyd Green urged a regional “division of labour” for premium crops and called for a framework to move farm workers across the Caribbean; Belize also hosted coconut pest and disease training for farmers. Green Energy & Women’s Business: The CDB launched a US$500,000 clean-energy support initiative for women-led businesses across the region, including Belize. Immigration & Labour: Government proposed investor residency and seasonal worker programmes to address labour shortages in agriculture/agribusiness, construction and hospitality. Governance & Compliance: Public Service Union challenged the acting solid waste appointment of Abelardo Mai Jr., alleging bypassed hiring rules. Culture & Heritage: Caracol Archaeological Reserve received a US$200,000 US ambassador grant for conservation and community engagement. Community & Events: Belize Birding Festival takes flight today in Orange Walk.

Transport & Cost-of-Living Pressure: Diesel rationing reports surfaced in Belize, with supplies expected to normalize after a tanker arrival; at the same time, Belize’s CPI rose 4.4% in August as transport costs jumped 11.7% (diesel up sharply) and eating out climbed 4.3%. Air Connectivity & Tourism: Tropic Air says it will end Punta Gorda service Nov. 1, triggering emergency calls for government support and contingency plans from Toledo stakeholders and the Opposition. Immigration & Labour Supply: The government proposed investor residency and seasonal worker programmes via Immigration and Nationality amendments, targeting labour shortages in agriculture/agribusiness, construction and hospitality. Agriculture & Food Security: Coconut farmers got pest and disease training under an FAO OCOP push; Belize’s primary sector contracted 6.1% in Q2 with banana, citrus and livestock declines, though marine exports rose and sugarcane improved. Regional Trade & Policy: Agriculture ministers at Caribbean Week of Agriculture urged better regional frameworks for moving farm workers and stronger intra-Caribbean shipping links. Governance & Public Sector: Minister Espat criticized inter-ministry “silos”; the Public Service Union challenged an acting solid waste appointment tied to a PUP MP’s son. Business & Partnerships: Taiwan plans to help Belize introduce electric buses and expand clean-tech and trade links; CDB launched a US$500,000 clean energy support facility for women-led businesses across the region. Security & Consumer Fraud: Police investigated a Facebook Marketplace scam and separate assault reports across Belize.

Aviation & Tourism Shock: Tropic Air says it will end its Punta Gorda service on Nov 1, citing sustained losses and runway uncertainty, triggering an emergency response from Toledo stakeholders and calls for government support or flight subsidies. Cost of Living Pressure: Belize’s inflation hit 4.4% in August (fuel, transport, housing and food driving), while consumer confidence slipped and Orange Walk saw the biggest confidence drop. Economic Mix Update: Belize’s economy grew 1.4% in Q2, led by services and trade, but primary and secondary sectors contracted, with banana, citrus and livestock output down. Food & Agriculture Signals: SIB reports cheaper tomatoes, okra and onions, even as broader food prices rose; agriculture leaders push for better regional trade links and farmworker movement frameworks. Energy & Fuel Strain: Reports of diesel rationing surfaced as Guatemala moves to temporarily exempt fuel taxes—raising cross-border supply concerns for Belize. Governance & Public Sector Tension: The Public Service Union challenged the acting solid waste appointment of Abelardo Mai Jr., alleging bypassed hiring rules and political favoritism. Land & Compliance Debate: A legal/land-rights push warns Belize is losing control of land to foreigners, alongside a separate crackdown on fake driver’s licences. Regional Cooperation: Belize and Taiwan signed deals to strengthen diplomatic training and collaboration, while Caribbean agriculture ministers renewed calls for regional integration.

Toledo Aviation Shock: Tropic Air says it will end its Punta Gorda service on Nov 1, citing sustained losses and uncertainty around Belize’s domestic aviation changes—prompting emergency calls for government support as the route underpins tourism, cargo, and time-sensitive services. Cost-of-Living Pressure: SIB reports August inflation at 4.4% year-on-year, driven by transport, fuels, housing utilities, and food; diesel jumped sharply, and eating out rose as restaurant costs climbed 4.3%. Consumer Mood Slides: Consumer confidence edged down in August, with Orange Walk hitting the steepest drop and men showing bigger pessimism than women. Economy Holds, but Uneven: Belize grew 1.4% in Q2 led by services, while primary and secondary sectors contracted; agriculture fell 6.1% with big declines in bananas and citrus, partly offset by sugarcane and marine exports. Regional Trade Push: Agriculture ministers at Caribbean Week of Agriculture urged stronger intra-Caribbean links, better air/sea transport, cold storage, and worker frameworks—while Belize highlighted readiness to supply regional markets. Diplomacy & Training: Belize and Taiwan signed an agreement to strengthen diplomatic staff training and exchanges, with links to tourism, smart agriculture, and fisheries. Fuel Disruption Watch: Reports of diesel rationing in Belize surfaced as Guatemala moves to temporarily tax-exempt fuel to cushion prices. Culture Funding: Caracol Archaeological Reserve received a US$200,000+ US Ambassador’s Fund grant for conservation and community engagement.

GDP & Primary Sector: Belize’s economy grew 1.4% in Q2 2026, but the primary sector shrank 6.1% as banana output fell 15.3%, citrus nearly collapsed (down to 3.8k tonnes), and livestock slipped 14.1%, partially offset by stronger sugarcane deliveries (+4.4%) and a 33.6% jump in marine exports. Inflation & Cost of Living: Consumer prices rose 4.4% in August (transport up 11.7% with diesel surging), while tomatoes, okra, carrots and onions got cheaper year-on-year; still, food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.5% and eating out climbed as restaurant costs increased 4.3%. Consumer Confidence: Confidence fell in August, with Orange Walk seeing the biggest drop (down 18.3%), and men more pessimistic than women. Aviation & Regional Business Impact: Tropic Air will end Punta Gorda service on Nov 1, triggering calls for government action as Toledo tourism and time-sensitive cargo links face disruption. Agriculture Policy & Investment: Belize pushed for regional food security moves at Caribbean Week of Agriculture, including “one country, one product,” stronger intra-regional trade, and plans to revive shrimp and citrus; meanwhile, a sugar refinery investment is set to boost refined sugar supply to CARICOM. Clean Energy Support: A CDB clean-energy facility will back women-led businesses across the region, including Belize, with technical and financing support.

Fuel & Cost Pressures: Reports of diesel rationing in Belize (10-gallon limits in some regions) are linked to a tanker expected Friday, with supplies hoped to normalize by Saturday, while Guatemala signed a temporary fuel tax exemption decree (Oct 1–Dec 31) that could affect cross-border fuel movements. Household Economics: Inflation averaged 2.9% in the first eight months of 2026, and consumer confidence slipped from 42.6 (July) to 42.4 (August), with northern districts like Corozal and Orange Walk showing sharp pessimism. Domestic Growth, Sector Strains: GDP rose 1.4% in Q2 2026, but manufacturing and construction contracted, with citrus output hit hardest while shrimp and marine exports climbed. Aviation & Toledo Connectivity: Tropic Air will end scheduled Punta Gorda service Nov 1, triggering calls for government action as tourism, cargo, and medical supply links face disruption. Agriculture & Food Security: At Caribbean Week of Agriculture, Belize pushed for actionable outcomes, regional farmworker frameworks, stronger intra-Caribbean trade, and a “one country, one product” model; Belize also targets recovery in shrimp and citrus and highlights cattle herd growth to 220,000. Diplomacy & Skills: Belize and Taiwan signed agreements on diplomatic training and a Taiwan-Caribbean Academy, with business talks also exploring investment in energy, AI, agriculture, and tourism. Local Business & Tourism: Funky Kingston opened in Belize City, adding Jamaican-Belizean food and Caribbean vibes along the highway. Governance & Oversight: The Public Service Union challenged the appointment of Abelardo Mai Jr. as acting solid waste director over hiring protocol concerns, while Belize City Council spending audits were questioned by Panton. Regulation Watch: The PUC is consulting on a permanent telecommunications pricing framework after earlier tariff-freezing rules.

Aviation & Regional Connectivity: Tropic Air will end scheduled flights to Punta Gorda on 1 November, after more than two decades, citing sustained financial losses—prompting BTIA’s Toledo chapter to call an emergency meeting over the wider economic impact on cargo and time-sensitive goods. Municipal Governance & Costs: Opposition Leader Tracy Panton says Belize City Council spending lacks audits, while UDP mayoral candidates campaign on “911” and link rising municipal costs to the trade licence regime and weak service delivery. Caribbean Food Security Push: Agriculture Minister Rodwell Ferguson urged Caribbean Week of Agriculture to deliver actionable outcomes, pitching climate-smart infrastructure, agro-processing, and stronger intra-regional transport to cut import dependence. Trade & Market Access: Ferguson backed a “One country, one product” model and called for better shipping routes and fewer non-tariff barriers so Belize can export more than traditional sugar and citrus. Agri-Industry Revival: Belize eyes a rebound in shrimp and citrus after disease setbacks, with shrimp production expected to triple in 2026 and cattle herd growth to 220,000 heads as beef export markets expand. Value-Added Investments: Belize is moving to refine sugar for CARICOM demand via a new refinery, while also expanding soybean production and agro-processing to boost food self-sufficiency. Diplomacy Meets Business: Taiwan and Belize signed agreements on a Taiwan-Caribbean Academy and diplomatic training, while a Taiwan-Belize business exchange explored deals in green energy, AI, agriculture, healthcare, and tourism. Food Prices Under Scrutiny: Wholesalers and retailers continue challenging BMDC’s produce import model as questions grow over monopolized vegetable supply and why market prices stay high versus Mexico. PUC Telecom Consultations: The PUC is seeking public input on a permanent framework for regulating telecommunications prices after earlier tariff-freezing measures. Tourism & Industry Spotlight: Aggressor Adventures says it won 118 Scuba Diving Magazine Readers Choice Awards, including top marks tied to Belize’s Aggressor V. Fisheries Update: Queen conch season opens 1 October, with size/weight rules and quota limits set by the Fisheries Department.